Following is a typical disclosure notice you might see at the end of an investment report. Take the time to read this disclosure, you might be surprised what you find:
If a numerical analysis is shown, the results are neither guarantees nor projections, and actual results may differ significantly. Any assumptions as to the interest rates, rates of return, inflation, or other values are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Rates of return shown are not indicative of any particular investment, and will vary over time. Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be taken as a guaranteed projection of actual returns from any recommended investment.
If you reviewed a report that said your retirement is going to be adequate but then get to the small print at the bottom of the report and it says, “Any assumptions as to the interest rates, rates of return, inflation, or other values are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only,” how should you feel? How much credence can you place in the numbers from such a report when planning your future? For example, if an assumed interest rate went from 5% to 3% in real time as you are saving for retirement, you might run out of money with 12 years left to live!
Or let’s say you use the past 40-year average market gains to forecast your future income and then read, “Any reference to past performance is not indicative of the future results.” You probably aren’t going to feel super confident about what your direction is going to be.
Of course we need to plan and project, using the best tools available, but how can you do any of those projections given all the unknowns?
In my experience, the best way to use forecasting projections is to keep track of each year’s projections and review from year to year. As the years go by you can watch out for adjustments that will surely force some changes. This way when something isn’t quite working out like you forecasted, you adjust. It’s the simple principle of tracking and you should be applying it when it comes to retirement funds, but what I have found is very few people do, only about 3 percent of us actually track and adjust each year.
Think of you being the navigator on an airplane. As you fly from San Francisco to Dallas, you are seldom going straight to your destination because of wind and weather. A navigator must keep adjusting and changing the course according to what affects the plane. This is the same for each of us financially. The forecasting is so important, but the adjusting to changes is critical. So for the 97% of those who don’t forecast, they will not end up in Dallas, financially speaking, but probably Minneapolis. I hope they like the colder north country. For information on how to create a more predictable retirement that you cannot outlive, contact me for a no cost consultation: firstname.lastname@example.org.